Canada’s Rental Market and Migration Trends: What’s Really Going On?

Canada’s rental market is going through a shift. After years of skyrocketing rents and fiercely tight supply, average asking rents have finally eased back to levels we haven’t seen in over two years. At the same time, people are moving across provinces at a pace and pattern that’s reshaping regional housing demand. Those two forces — rent movements and migration flows — are deeply connected, and understanding both gives landlords, investors, and renters a clearer picture of where the rental market stands going into 2026.

Here’s what the data shows and what it might mean.

1. National Rents Are Lower Than They’ve Been in Years

According to the Rentals.ca National Rent Report, average asking rents across Canada ended 2025 at their lowest point in more than two years. As of December, rents averaged about $2,060 per month. That’s a year-over-year drop of roughly 2.3%, and marks consistent monthly declines stretching over more than a year. (Rentals.ca)

More detailed reporting from Rentals.ca shows that rents have been drifting downward over the course of 2025, reversing much of the steep inflation seen in 2022–2023. In mid-year, rents were also lower than the previous year in surveys from July and August, signaling a trend rather than a short-term blip.

For renters and investors alike, this represents a pivotal change. After years where nearly every market in Canada seemed to get more expensive by the month, this stabilization — and in many cases reduction — gives renters breathing room and could shift negotiations in the landlord’s favor. But numbers don’t exist in a vacuum: they reflect balance between demand and supply, and, importantly, where people are choosing to live.

2. Why Rents Are Falling: Supply, Demand, and Migration

There isn’t a single reason rents have cooled, but three major factors intersect here:

• Higher rental supply: More purpose-built rental units have come online in 2024 and 2025. A larger supply naturally eases upward pressure on rents, especially in markets where inventory was previously tight.
• Slowing demand: Part of demand depends on how many people are moving into markets. If fewer new renters are arriving — whether due to slower population growth or other factors — landlords find themselves with relatively more units available. This softens competitive pressure among renters.
• Migration patterns: Where people choose to move has major implications for local housing demand. Even if overall migration numbers aren’t huge, shifts in regional flows can change vacancy rates and rent growth dramatically.

The first two points are tied to broader economic and housing policy dynamics. But the last one — migration — is something that shows up clearly in the U-Haul Growth Index, a dataset based on more than 2.5 million one-way moving transactions that gives us a picture of where people are relocating within Canada (and between the U.S. and Canada, though we’ll focus on the Canadian context). (U-Haul International)

3. Migration Hotspots: Alberta, B.C., and Growing Cities

The latest U-Haul Growth Index for Canada shows a clear pattern: Alberta continues to lead the country as the top growth province, and Calgary is again the top Canadian growth city for 2025. That’s the third year in a row both the province and the city have held those titles.

Here’s how the top growth provinces stacked up in 2025:

1. Alberta
2. British Columbia
3. Manitoba
4. Saskatchewan
5. Quebec
6. Prince Edward Island
7. Newfoundland & Labrador
8. New Brunswick
9. Nova Scotia
10. Ontario 

And when you look at the cities that are adding the most residents based on how many movers end up arriving rather than leaving:

1. Calgary, AB
2. Barrie, ON
3. Montreal, QC
4. Victoria, BC
5. Edmonton, AB
6. Kelowna, BC
7. Vancouver, BC
8. Richmond, BC
9. Winnipeg, MB
10. Toronto, ON 

This list is interesting for a couple of reasons:

• Alberta and some of its cities, like Calgary and Edmonton, are consistently at the top. Calgary’s appeal stems from a combination of strong job markets, relatively lower cost of living compared to major coastal cities, high wages in key sectors, and abundant outdoor lifestyle options.
• British Columbia, particularly Victoria and Vancouver, remains a significant draw. Vancouver’s position despite higher rents suggests lifestyle, climate, and regional economic strength are big factors.
• Ontario — despite being the only province with a net loss of U-Haul customers overall — has several cities on the growth list, like Barrie and Toronto. This hints at nuanced internal flows: while the province might see more departures than arrivals overall, certain urban markets continue to attract newcomers.
• Manitoba’s jump into the top three is also noteworthy. Winnipeg and Brandon being on the growth list shows that smaller markets with affordable costs and cultural diversity are also attracting people.

4. How Migration Patterns Connect to Rental Trends

Let’s connect these migration patterns to the rental market data:

• Strong inflows into Alberta and parts of British Columbia and Manitoba can sustain rental demand in these regions. Even if rents are declining nationally, strong population inflows help support healthy occupancy and can limit how fast rents fall in those specific markets.
• Rents falling in Canada overall — even with some cities still attracting movers — suggests that demand isn’t overwhelming supply in many places. Waves of new rental buildings and slower nationwide population growth (due to tighter immigration policies and lower non-permanent resident numbers) are softening overall market tightness.
• Ontario’s complex picture — a net outflow at the provincial level but pockets of city growth — probably helps explain why Toronto’s rent isn’t spiraling upward. Some movers leave the province for other regions, easing demand pressure, even though urban centers still attract new renters.

For example, Calgary’s population growth — bolstered by both net migration and broader economic growth — helps keep rental units occupied even as rent increases calibrate with market conditions. A city like Vancouver might see slower rent growth because of broader national trends, but it remains a top destination, which helps moderate vacancy increases.

5. What This Means for Investors, Landlords, and Renters

Understanding these broader patterns helps inform decisions whether you’re investing, leasing, or renting:

For Investors and Landlords:

• Markets with strong migration inflows (like Calgary, Victoria, and Winnipeg) tend to have more predictable rental demand. Even if rents aren’t rising rapidly, these markets offer stability because people are moving there in meaningful numbers.
• In regions where migration is modest or flat (and where supply is increasing), rents are more likely to remain soft. That doesn’t mean investors should avoid these markets altogether, but it does mean expectations about rent growth need to be realistic.
• Paying attention to provincial net flows is also crucial. Alberta’s ongoing attraction helps support both rental and resale housing demand, while Ontario’s mix of in-province variability suggests investors need to be selective about which cities they target.

For Renters:

• Decreasing average rents across Canada are good news in many places. Even though rents are still above where they were several years ago, the fact that they’re lower than they were last year gives renters more negotiating room and increases affordability.
• That said, in cities with strong migration, rents might hold steady because demand remains robust. So renters eyeing markets like Calgary or Victoria shouldn’t assume prices will drop rapidly just because national averages are lower.

6. Looking Ahead: What’s Next for 2026?

As we move into 2026, a few questions will shape the rental market landscape:

• Will migration flows continue where they are? Alberta’s dominance and Manitoba’s rise show that people are looking for affordability, opportunity, and lifestyle. If these drivers stay strong, these markets will continue to outperform.
• What role will supply play? Recent and upcoming rental completions will keep pressure on rents. More units hitting the market means landlords may need to be more competitive with pricing and incentives to keep occupancy high.
• How will national policies affect housing demand? Immigration policy, labour markets, and economic conditions will all influence how many renters are entering Canada and where they choose to live.

For now, the picture is clear: national rents are easing, migration is reshaping where demand concentrates, and the interplay between these forces is creating a more balanced rental landscape. For anyone involved in rental housing today, tuning into both rent metrics and migration patterns isn’t just useful — it’s essential.

If you want help unpacking how these trends affect a specific city or real estate strategy, I can dive deeper into that next. Just let me know what you’re focusing on.