Predicting the future is always a challenging endeavor, especially in the ever-evolving landscape of the real estate market. As we reflect on the past three years in the Canadian housing market—a period marked by surprises such as surging prices and shifting interest rates—we find ourselves compelled to gaze into the crystal ball and explore what 2024 might have in store.
To shed light on this, we’ve summarized several economists data on what might be coming down the pipeline or 2024.
Buyers and Sellers in 2024
According to Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), buyers seem to be in hibernation mode, hesitant to make significant moves until spring, contingent on anticipated price adjustments. However, the surprising surge in buyer activity during the Bank of Canada’s interest rate pause earlier this year suggests that market dynamics can swiftly change. While the prospect of rate hikes looms, the timing remains uncertain. CREA emphasizes the importance of a robust spring market for a flourishing 2024, highlighting the symbiotic relationship between the two.
For sellers, a quieter period may ensue, given the decline in listings towards the end of 2023. Potential sellers may be reluctant to list in a cooling market unless absolutely necessary, as listing in a warmer market could attract multiple offers and heightened demand.
West Is Where Its At
Regional trends indicate that Alberta has become a hot commodity once again, reminiscent of a decade ago. As Vancouver’s real estate becomes increasingly unaffordable, buyers are turning to the interior of British Columbia and venturing further east into Alberta.
Alberta’s appeal extends beyond displaced Vancouverites, as it gains popularity among Ontarians. Calgary has witnessed a notable surge in home prices, and the rest of Alberta may follow suit, according to economists observations.
The East Coast has also experienced a boom, with Halifax, Nova Scotia, seeing a rise in home prices. The prevalence of remote work has enabled individuals from the Greater Toronto Area to relocate, with some opting to resist any return-to-office plans.
Some Final Thoughts
While predicting the future remains challenging, available data offers insights into potential trends. National home sales declined by about 9.8% in 2023 compared to 2022, but CREA’s fall statistics project a rebound of approximately 9% in 2024, aligning more closely with the 10-year national average.
Provinces projected to lead in home sales include Ontario (up 10.8%), Nova Scotia (up 10.4%), Newfoundland and Labrador (up 9.8%), and Alberta (up 9.6%).
Price gains in 2024 are predicted to be modest, with a national increase of around 1.5%. Ontario expects relatively stable prices despite a projected 10.8% increase in sales.
Provinces forecasted to experience the most significant price gains include Alberta (up 4.8%), New Brunswick (up 2.7%), and Newfoundland and Labrador (up 2.6%).
In essence, while economic conditions may appear unpredictable, the real estate landscape in 2024 offers a mix of challenges and opportunities. Despite concerns about interest rates, those considering a move in 2024 will find a plethora of opportunities at their fingertips.
