If you want to understand what’s really going on in Canada’s housing market right now, start by watching where people are moving. Whether it’s international immigration, cross-country relocations, or shifts from big cities to smaller ones, these movements are directly influencing everything from rental prices to real estate valuations—and not in subtle ways.
It’s not just about numbers. When large groups of people head into or out of a market, it creates real pressure—on inventory, rents, pricing, infrastructure, and even investor sentiment. The ripple effects are being felt across provinces, and while the headlines still focus on interest rates and inflation, the real action is happening in the migration trends.
Let’s take a look at how this is unfolding nationally, what’s driving it, and what it all means for Canada’s real estate landscape—province by province.
National Overview: Growth Is Slowing, But Demand Is Rebalancing
Canada’s population growth has stalled in recent months. As of Q1 2025, Statistics Canada reported a net gain of only 20,107 people—the lowest quarterly increase since 2020. Most of that came from international immigration, as natural population growth (births minus deaths) was actually negative. Tighter immigration caps and fewer temporary residents, particularly international students and workers, are beginning to reshape the housing market in tangible ways.
CMHC expects rental supply to outpace demand through 2027, with vacancy rates rising across most cities—some for the first time in a decade. National home prices are forecast to decline about 2% in 2025, with larger corrections in Ontario and B.C.
But nationally aggregated stats don’t tell the full story. The real picture becomes clearer when we understand why people are moving—and where they’re going.
What’s Driving Migration in Canada Right Now?
Migration isn’t random. It’s driven by a few powerful forces—economic, social, and policy-related.
1. Affordability
People are leaving high-cost provinces like Ontario and B.C. to find more affordable living in Alberta and parts of Atlantic Canada. This is especially true for first-time buyers and young families who have been priced out of markets like Toronto and Vancouver.
2. Job Opportunities
Economic shifts are pushing people toward provinces with stronger job growth. Alberta’s energy, construction, and tech sectors are drawing skilled workers. The Prairies are quietly growing logistics and manufacturing bases. These job opportunities often drive housing demand more than just lifestyle factors.
3. Lifestyle and Remote Work
Post-pandemic lifestyle shifts are still in play. Smaller cities that offer more space, lower costs, and decent infrastructure (like Moncton or Halifax) continue to attract people leaving larger metros. Remote work has made this transition easier, although it’s leveling off compared to the COVID-era surge.
4. Government Policy
Immigration policy continues to shape who comes and where they go. Canada’s 2024 cap of 483,000 new permanent residents had an outsized impact on Ontario and B.C., where most newcomers settle. However, recent changes have aimed to encourage settlement in mid-size cities and smaller provinces.
5. Housing Supply
People don’t just move to opportunity—they move where they can actually find housing. Provinces with faster permitting, more new builds, and investor-friendly regulations are becoming magnets for both renters and buyers.
Now that we’ve set the stage, let’s go province by province to see how this is playing out.
Alberta: Population Gains Fueling Price Stability
Alberta has been Canada’s migration winner for nearly three years. In Q1 2025, it had the highest interprovincial gain— +7,176 people—mostly from Ontario and B.C. Calgary and Edmonton continue to see strong demand in both rental and ownership markets.
Rental prices have softened slightly from their 2023 peaks, but demand remains high. Vacancy rates are up just a tick, and rent growth is still above the national average.
Home prices are showing surprising strength. The average Alberta home price sat around $525,000 in June, up 4.3% year-over-year, even as most provinces reported declines. The combination of affordability and economic opportunity is making Alberta a long-term growth story.
British Columbia: Easing Rents, Price Corrections
B.C. remains a key landing spot for newcomers, but the overall population gain has slowed. Interprovincial migration has gone negative, meaning more people are leaving than arriving from other provinces—many headed to Alberta or the Maritimes.
Rents in Vancouver and surrounding areas dropped between 2–8% year-over-year in Q1 2025, according to CMHC. New rental completions and fewer international students are contributing to this softening.
Home prices have followed suit. The average price of a home in Greater Vancouver is down roughly 4–5% from 2024, and some analysts expect further easing through late 2025.
Ontario: Strong Immigration Meets Softening Prices
Ontario continues to be the most popular province for new immigrants, especially permanent residents. But despite this demand, the housing market is softening.
Rents in Toronto dropped by 2–6% in early 2025, and while competition remains for well-located properties, the sense of urgency has eased. More supply is hitting the market, especially in the condo and purpose-built rental sectors.
Real estate prices have taken a noticeable hit. The average Ontario home price was around $852,000 in June 2025, down 3.7% year-over-year. Some markets like Hamilton and parts of the GTA are seeing larger corrections as high prices and borrowing costs weigh on demand.
Quebec: Quietly Stable
Quebec hasn’t seen the same wild swings as other provinces, and that’s a good thing. Immigration is steady, especially among French-speaking newcomers, and internal migration is minimal.
Rental demand is strong in Montreal and Quebec City. The latter posted a 99.1% occupancy rate at the end of 2024—the tightest in the country.
Home prices are stable, and in some cases up slightly year-over-year. Investors view Quebec as a lower-volatility play, and its regulatory environment favors long-term rentals over speculative flipping.
The Prairies: Under-the-Radar Growth
Manitoba and Saskatchewan may not be making headlines, but they’re quietly growing. Winnipeg and Saskatoon are seeing steady in-migration, affordable home prices, and rental demand that’s increasing just enough to grab attention.
Rents are up 3–5% year-over-year, and vacancy rates are inching down. Home prices remain highly affordable—averaging under $400,000—with small but consistent gains in many submarkets.
These provinces are benefiting from their “just right” mix: low cost of living, moderate growth, and a balanced housing market.
Atlantic Canada: Tight Markets, Lingering Momentum
Moncton, Halifax, and St. John’s became some of Canada’s fastest-growing cities post-COVID, and that momentum hasn’t fully faded.
Rentals in Halifax remain tight despite some softening. Moncton, in particular, continues to attract buyers and renters priced out of central Canada.
Real estate prices haven’t dipped as much as in Ontario or B.C.—most areas are either flat or showing small gains (+2–4% year-over-year), largely due to constrained supply. That could change if population growth continues to slow, but for now, Atlantic Canada remains in growth mode.
National Market Impact: Rent Eases, Prices Adjust
So, what’s the big picture?
- Rents are easing in major urban centers but remain high in small- and mid-size cities with tight supply.
- Home prices are declining in Ontario and B.C. by about 2–5%, while Alberta and parts of the East Coast are holding up or rising slightly.
- Vacancy rates are forecast to peak at 4% nationally by 2026, according to CMHC, which would mark a return to more balanced rental markets across Canada.
Final Thoughts: Follow the People
The real story behind Canada’s housing shifts isn’t just in economic reports—it’s in migration. Where people move, demand follows. And whether you’re a landlord, an investor, or a first-time homebuyer, knowing the forces behind these movements can help you make smarter, more informed decisions.
Alberta looks like a long-term bet. Quebec and the Prairies offer stability. Ontario and B.C. are cooling—but still competitive. And Atlantic Canada, while no longer a “secret,” still offers opportunity if you move quickly.
In 2025, the housing market isn’t crashing. It’s rebalancing. And people—where they go and why—are leading the way.
